Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 14.050720 16.351897 18.856504 21.777869 25.084297 28.702833 32.954808
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 10.077202 13.131256 16.780492 21.429214 27.157224 33.945463 42.556354
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 7.808122 11.226532 15.651381 21.719503 29.733416 39.853614 53.482435
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 6.077790 9.553924 14.387168 21.457291 31.366687 44.567806 63.248068
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 5.213988 8.850291 14.223330 22.518275 34.725816 51.706221 76.701376
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 4.401251 8.033103 13.713417 22.928243 37.102475 57.594442 88.828872
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 3.694842 7.230202 13.066088 22.982292 38.870056 62.661559 100.083713
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 3.133935 6.554072 12.494791 23.034172 40.565231 67.670591 111.530199
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 2.932583 6.479804 12.903978 24.706233 44.936030 77.017564 130.099600
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.668292 6.232472 12.962734 25.762265 48.356281 85.081501 147.168999
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.429134 5.987607 12.982286 26.729118 51.676784 93.172615 164.740940
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.107075 5.505233 12.478548 26.669615 53.184061 98.357997 177.899612
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.731377 4.838274 11.535301 25.711410 53.073806 100.950209 187.193526
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.432193 4.282256 10.733658 24.928365 53.206848 103.971682 197.433963
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.254594 3.984117 10.434782 25.114135 55.166608 110.313134 213.742211
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.066794 3.613305 9.912532 24.762115 56.035758 114.735176 226.937664
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.997596 3.551973 10.095897 25.941467 60.031905 125.110143 251.276293
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.895889 3.371590 9.962972 26.396586 62.577020 132.913008 271.350710
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.787485 3.142882 9.672613 26.454473 64.290945 139.230692 289.023283
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.693349 2.933966 9.398159 26.511872 65.996484 145.618023 307.140794
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.681994 3.000244 9.866257 28.399418 71.803492 160.349714 341.694773
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.643548 2.962746 10.044116 29.590592 76.160267 172.431560 371.745764
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.604127 2.911887 10.176778 30.680594 80.367341 184.431025 402.180875